The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Weaker.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s close under the critical 2749.00 level wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive close on Friday. But neither was it rejected, bouncing overnight to 2784.50 and only to 2779.25 at Friday’s opening high, both under prior highs. So, the downtrend remains intact. Friday’s 2732.25 low essentially filled the gap back to within 2-3 ticks of Thursday’s close. Its bounce peaked within 2-3 ticks of the open’s 2779.25 high to within 2-3 ticks. The bounce would be bearish had Friday probed a new low, but the burden of proof of a bottom forming remains on gapping up Monday, to avoid another intraday downleg.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s gap down quickly extended to 2757.00, retracing at least 61.8% of Friday’s late rally. Trending down overnight has extended to 2745.25 where Friday’s late rally originated. That has reacted up 14 points to 2759.25.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Clearly not indicated to gap up, and immediately rejecting Friday’s late rally, a morning downleg is likely. Objectives range from a probe under Friday’s 2732.25 low (which we already consider unstable if retested) to retesting oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 2712.25 low (which risks also breaking 2709.00 to launch a more substantial meltdown). Somehow recovering to avoid trending down this morning would still face significant resistance at Friday’s ~2780.00 highs.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2766.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2762.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2758.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2749.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2751.75 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.