The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Will lightning strike out twice?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Greeting Tuesday’s open in rally mode wasn’t bearish; nor was gapping up. But already fulfilling the doubly-renewed bias-up up target did increase potential for backing-and-filling, if only because the rally had room for a correction without damaging the chart. The open missed a couple of opportunities to resume the rally, so the pullback began. But it extended into Monday’s range (probing under the overnight low) when the rally needed the pullback to stop optimistically short. And a late bounce back above Monday’s high settled back under it to render Tuesday’s optimism as ineffectual. A second-day confirmation to Monday’s recovery attempt failed its own attempt. But similar to Monday’s recovery that had stopped short of closing above a prior high, Tuesday’s reversal avoided closing under a prior low, keeping momentum in flux.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s 2621.50 low had printed during the afternoon bias environment, which was exited in rally mode. Its 2661.00 peak was already reversing down into the close and got to 2628.00. Price action since then has trended up relentlessly, probing yesterday’s late bounce up to 2667.00 — and threatening to gap up above Monday’s highs.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The burden of proof is back on buyers. Tuesday’s otherwise normal pullback extended too deep when China trade war rhetoric hit the headlines. Its influence on price is already retraced, so its attraction above is already neutralized. Recovering it again through the open could be credible for resuming Monday’s rally effort. Meanwhile, the overnight bounce is a function of more China trade war headlines, and not maintaining its gain through another timing window would indicate more vulnerability to sellers regaining control.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2651.50 would be unlikely to exceed the 2655.00 bias-up target through 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2649.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2645.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.