The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Head-fake, or double secret head-fake?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s low was 19 points under the 2735.75 overnight high, and still held positive territory. The drop was recovered entirely before leaving the noon hour. It was also still an inside day, contained within Tuesday’s range, until a later probe higher to 2739.50. That included another drop which was also fully recovered, reacting down to the FOMC Minutes. It created the afternoon’s 2725.00 low. Regardless of the late surge, Tuesday’s downside momentum has yet to be reversed.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex gapped down under Thursday afternoon’s 2737.50 high to immediately reject the late surge. Immediately extending lower to test 2733.00 didn’t prevent recovering to retest the late surge up to 2740.00. And it didn’t prevent a spike up after midnight to 2745.00 that extended up to 2747.50 before Europe’s opens. More like until Europe’s opens. Collapsing back down to 2735.00 was retraced 6 points, but only temporarily. Now 2733.00 is being retested.

If, then…
Regardless of current indications, the soon-to-be released Employment Situation report makes today’s actual opening print wild card. But we do know there are two bearish setups forming, waiting to be triggered. First, having trended up into Thursday’s close, gapping down Friday under Thursday afternoon’s 2725.00 low would form a “session-long decline.” That much we knew at yesterday’s close, but now a second setup may be forming since first dipping at last night’s Globex open (see image). Having probed above Thursday’s intraday high, exiting Friday’s open under the earlier 2732.75 overnight low would reverse momentum down through the morning. Otherwise, not exploiting the reversal potential would be likely at least to test the overnight high. And this being a Friday, when the morning’s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour, extending higher could reach the mid-2750s and maybe low 2760s.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary levels are considered ahead of Employment Situation reports.