The First Trade… Rally meets another objective.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s sideways ranging consolidated Wednesday’s FOMC surge. Gapping down and ranging exclusively in negative territory was pessimistic, but not trending down made that “ineffectual pessimism.” The morning’s touch of 2084.50 resistance was probed momentarily by 2 points before the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
It didn’t take long for the rally’s 2088.00 objective to be met. Its resistance held for 90 minutes before extending higher to 2094.75 through midnight. The balance of the session has drifted back down to test yesterday’s highs as support at 2082.50.

If, then…
Probing new highs — new highs above the year’s earlier pre-crash highs — would require overcoming 2088.00. Not just probing it overnight or intraday, but closing above it. And then closing above it again on the second consecutive session. But if 2088.00  satisfies this rally, then regardless of how high it is probed overnight or intraday, the close should be back below it. And the rejection of probing above it should be acute, spending only nominal time attracting weak-handed buyers before reversing down sharply. The bearish scenario presumes it is weak-handed buyers who have been pushing price higher impatiently, and would sooner exit than defend against a reversal down. Without repeating the overnight test of 2088.00, then closing under yesterday’s 2073.00-2075.00 lows could signal its rejection already underway.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger the 2088.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2084.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2077.00 would be likely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.