The First Trade… Recovery day, or recovery failure?
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(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Unfinished business below kept alive the ongoing decline. Wednesday”s outstanding requirement to test 2093.50 was Thursday”s opening print. But that was too late for it to suffice, and had since required also testing 2085.00-2086.50. So, the open”s bounce to 2098.00 resistance was reversed sharply to thoroughly test its new target. Its recovery attempt was reversed into the noon hour, ultimately breaking support to fulfill the next lower targets at 2077.00 and 2070.00. A last-minute bounce to 2083.00 fulfilled near-term buying pressure.
Overnight action”s new info…
While 2082.75 was a near-term target of yesterday”s last-minute bounce, there was also potential to 2086.50. It was eventually met by relatively calm, flat-to-higher ranging. A shallow pullback into Europe”s opens is now being recovered to a fresh high at 2088.00 .
If, then…
Did the Friday Factor already exacerbated the decline by accelerating selling pressures into Thursday? Several major markets are closed today for May Day (China, Russia, Germany, and Singapore). Since sellers gained traction for their efforts yesterday — by exiting the bias environment under the noon hour”s low and entering the final hour lower — trending up immediately would require gapping up above yesterday afternoon”s 2090.00 bias environment high… which is being attacked now. This being a Friday, the morning”s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. So, triggering bias-up could extend sharply higher through the morning. The alternative would target at least a retest of yesterday”s oversold lows.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2086.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2084.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2093.50 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by also exceeding the 2090.00 bias-up target through 10:15. But exiting the open under 2080.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.