The First Trade… Recovery in limbo.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

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Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning”s dive from 2104.25 to 2088.25 was recovered into the bias environment”s exit. Probing under the bias-down signal and two bias-down targets was rejected back up to 2110.25. The critical 2090.00-2095.25 range held another test. What could be more bullish? Attracting new sponsorship. But the only probe higher came into the futures close, which reached 2112.50.

Overnight action”s new info…
Downtrending into Europe”s opens reach 2108.00, then recovered to Tuesday”s 2112.50 post-close high. Rather than extend higher, the lows were just probed down to 2106.00. 

If, then…
A proxy to attracting new sponsorship yesterday afternoon would be to gap up this morning. That likelihood looked much better 3 hours ago when yesterday”s 2112.50 post-close high was being retested. Opening back under yesterday”s highs could still qualify by surging immediately. Otherwise, the most bullish scenario would be to back-and-fill ahead of this afternoon”s FOMC policy statement. But then, greeting the news from a position of weakness would be problematic if yesterday”s lows had not already held a retest.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2101.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2104.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2111.00 would be likely at least to test the 2112.75 bias-up signal, which would likely trigger after exiting the open above 2114.75.