The First Trade… Reinforcements haven’t arrived.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Probing fresh highs overnight at 2094.50 didn”t prevent gapping down Monday. But Thursday and Friday”s lows held at 2075.00, recovering 2080.50 in time to put into play 2091.00. Momentum slowed but did not stop — triggering the afternoon”s 2094.50 bias-up signal targeted 2099.75, which was tested at the cash session”s very last possible minute .

Overnight action”s new info…
Firming into the Globex open soon extended up to 2103.75, 4 points above yesterday afternoon”s bias-up target that had been met at the close. But that was the end of that. Reversing down about 10 points eventually tested and retested 2093.00, probing back under yesterday morning”s highs. Its retest is being accompanied by WMT”s big earnings drop.

If, then…
Yesterday”s rally didn”t gain traction, not at the bias environment exit or at the final hour”s entry. So, gapping up is likely the only way to resume the rally without delay, and a gap up is certainly not indicated at this moment. That said, the overnight dip hasn”t slipped too far back into negative territory — not, yet. Meanwhile, though, a “session-long decline” setup would begin forming by maintaining a gap down under yesterday afternoon”s 2096.00 low. I”ll be skeptical of that setup if it”s not triggered decisively. Recovering positive territory above 2099.25 before the open could get carried away easily to the upside.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2096.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2099.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal.