The First Trade… Slip-slidin’ away.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Despite Friday”s 2097.00 open begin essentially flat with Thursday”s close, it spiked down immediately 6 points back to Thursday”s lows. Closing Thursday under 2099.25had put into play 2077.00 with room for noise down to 2073.00, and they were tested down to 2070.00. Firming through Friday”s final hour was still overlapping the 2073.00-2077.00 target, not decisively holding it or breaking it.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s firm open eventually attacked this morning”s 2081.00 bias-up signal to within 1-2 ticks. But selling pressure had become evident already ahead of Europe”s opens, perhaps concerned by China”s renewed crashing. Trending down since then has now begun probing under Friday”s low down to 2067.00 — just 2 points 2065.75 — just 3 ticks from this morning”s bias-down target.

If, then…
In the absence of gapping up, even the most bullish scenario was still likely to probe fresh lows. Gapping down too much or simply not recovering quickly would indicate that late retail sellers were being joined by a new round of stronger hands distributing. And if the decline is extending this morning, then today”s eventual drop could overshadow Friday”s.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2070.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2071.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2060.00 would be likely also not to recover the 2065.00 bias-down target, renewing the bias-down signal and next targeting 2051.00. Exiting the open above 2077.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.