The First Trade… Sound and fury.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s range was choppy, but trending attempts in either direction failed to extend. Overnight action had twice probed above Wed-Thu 2104.25 highs, greeting Friday”s open from above 2108.00. That didn”t prevent sliding immediately back into the range to 2099.00. The noon hour”s probe above 2104.25 reversed down more deeply to attack 2095.00 before bouncing into the close.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s “pattern” is the nearest thing to a random walk that I”ve seen on the screen in quite awhile. A flat open hovering under 2105.50 suddenly collapsed to attack Friday”s late 2095.00 low. Gradual choppiness pierced lower and lower to 2093.50 through Europe”s opens. A 9-point surge to 2102.50 was retraced almost as quickly back down to pierce 2093.50. Its retest didn”t react up as much, but price action has settled in around unchanged.

If, then…
Overnight selling pressure hasn”t been less overwhelming and more ongoing. Sellers haven”t thrown a lot at the market, but their throwing has been relentless. All of that effort hasn”t had much impact. If this sounds familiar, that”s because Friday”s choppy ranging was similarly ineffectual. It”s not too late for sellers to take greater control, but a bullish resolution becomes likelier as the open grows nearer without any rally efforts being absorbed .

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2099.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2093.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2101.50 would be likely to trigger the 2105.50 bias-up signal.