The First Trade… Starting in the hole.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday”s opening break extended down through the morning to fulfill the retest of Friday”s oversold RSIs at 2083.50. Extending down through the noon hour tested the decline”s 2081.25 objective. And lower lows going into the bias environment fulfilled potential for noise down to 2078.75, with an extra point of room. Bouncing to 2086.25 into the final hour opened the door to a short-squeeze, but it never materialized. Instead the entire bounce was retraced into the cash session close.

Overnight action”s new info…
.Choppy sideways action never extended yesterday”s decline, even through Europe”s opens where selling had been resuming. But a 13-point downleg began later, dropping to 2068.75. Only 1-minute RSI diverged positively there, but that was enough to launch a 61.8% retracement of the drop back up to 2076.75.

If, then…
Fulfilling all downside objective yesterday took all of the session”s time, leaving none for rejecting the lows. Gapping up today above the late-afternoon bounce would have compensated for that delay, but the vulnerability to extending down seems to have won out. Overnight, at least, as the new downleg may have a scapegoat (Deutsche Bank offices raided) that allows knife-catchers a reason to step in. Isolating the reaction to overnight by opening in positive territory could trigger the short-squeeze that yesterday”s bias environment exit had suggested. Otherwise, the little support that is clustered 1-2 points under the 2068.75 overnight low would be the last defense against targeting 2044.00.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2076.50 would be likely also to probe under the 2075.50 bias-down signal at 10:15, and under 2072.50 would likely trigger it. Exiting the open above 2081.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down, and above 2085.00 likelier to trigger the 2084.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.