The First Trade… Stop blinking, you’re missing it.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
(Values have been updated to Dec pricing, which becomes the front-month at this morning’s open) Gapping up Wednesday to 1977.00 resistance couldn’t resume the overnight rally, but easily retraced it, and by a 2-point margin down to 1956.25 through the morning bias environment’s exit. A noon hour bounce to 1965.00 was obviously weak-handed resolved down to 1941.00 through the afternoon bias environment’s exit. That neutralized unfinished business outstanding from Tuesday, but wait, there’s more… Another downleg plunged to 1926.25, essentially turning a 29-point rally into a 29-point loss.

Overnight action’s new info…
A relatively slightly lower low at 1924.00 couldn’t attract sponsorship to resume the decline, and prices firmed into and out of midnight. The firming accelerated and extended to test 1947.00 into Europe’s opens. Then things got interesting… A plunge to 1933.50 was soon recovered to fresh highs attacking 1958.00 — which is interesting enough, but that surge has been retraced entirely and then some back down to 1932.00, probing under yesterday’s close.

If, then…
My premise at yesterday’s close was that sellers were most vulnerable. After neutralizing downside attractions, the decline not only extended but plunged, at a time when extreme sentiment tends to be a sentiment extreme, i.e. capitulation. And that still didn’t put into play any lower objectives, since sellers didn’t gain traction for their effort — only the bias environment exit was under its prior timing window’s low. So, did the overnight rally fulfill that premise and neutralize it? Its peak was a 61.8% retracement of yesterday’s intraday drop, which qualifies it as a correction. But that was overnight, and its retracement does allow the intraday crowd a bite at that apple. They’ll have to greet the open already in rally mode to prevent the latest overnight leg from gaining its own traction and resuming yesterday’s drop.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1941.25 would be likely also to trigger the 1939.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1935.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 1926.50 would be likely to trigger the 1928.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.