The First Trade… Suspended animation.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday”s opening surge was retraced entirely after probing above Monday”s high, but recovered quickly from 2072.25 to a higher high that fulfilled the bias-up target. Despite maintaining the potential for resuming the rally, ranging sideways into the final hour broke 10 points under 2077.50 support.

Overnight action”s new info…
The late break”s 2066.00 objective was met soon after the cash session close. A later probe under it by only 6 ticks was recovered to 2073.75. That has since reacted back down to within 6 ticks of 2066.00.

If, then…
End o”quarter earnings season kicks off unofficially today with the high-profile post-close Alcoa (AA) announcement. Whether they”ve been talked down enough will be obvious when the first miss resolves in higher prices. That won”t prevent an initially negative knee-jerk reaction, and the market might meanwhile be walking on eggshells. This afternoon”s FOMC Minutes should have the same inhibiting effect before its release. A path higher can greet these obstacles either from higher ground where a reaction down can be more easily absorbed, or else from lower levels after trapping shorts. The latter path runs the risk of attracting fresher sellers, since yesterday”s pullback is already testing 2066.00 support, with further room only 5 points lower. Perhaps the most suspicious effort would be rallying early to 2075.00-2077.50 resistance without exceeding it.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2076.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2075.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2069.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up, and likely at least to test the 2066.00 bias-down signal intraday.