The First Trade… Tale of two expirations.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up grudgingly triggered its 1995.50 bias-up signal and grudgingly fulfilled its 1999.50 bias-up target. Exiting the bias environment back under its fulfilled bias-up signal down to 1989.50 indicated that grudging sponsorship was gone. But sellers proved to be more grudging than the morning’s buyers, and could not be attracted at all. So, a much more willing round of buying emerged, taking the noon hour to fresh session highs. The afternoon’s bias-up environment extended the rally to fulfill its 2007.50 bias-up target. And the rally extended through the cash session close to touch its ultimate objective at 2019.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
An early thrust higher tried to reignite the afternoon’s magic, and did touch 2023.00. But soon began reversing down to 2016.00. Bouncing back up to 2022.00 has been reversed down to lower lows testing 2014.00.

If, then…
Trading choppily overnight is proof that yesterday afternoon’s rally was a function of today’s expiration. That’s interesting, since it fulfilled a significant upside objective at 2019.50 and WedEX is forecasting a bearish afternoon. Meanwhile, this being expiration, trending through the opening 15 minutes of volatility can forecast trending throughout the day. And this being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2019.50 would be likely to maintain that recovery through 10:15 to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2016.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2019.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2007.50 would be likely to trigger the 2011.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.