The First Trade… That’s a big butterfly.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping up more than 13 points Monday to 2086.00 immediately surged even higher to attack 2095.00. The balance of the session extended higher, still, to probe the morning”s 2100.00 target by 3 ticks. No unfinished business was left outstanding, and buyers did not gain traction for their efforts.

Overnight action”s new info…
Initially probing another point higher to 2101.75 had settled back down to 2098.25 where China”s devaluation triggered a steep slide. Ranging 3 points either way around 2091.00 gave way to a lower low testing 2085.50. Its reaction up to 2092.25 has fallen back down to 2088.00.

If, then…
Before Monday afternoon signaled that trending was done, triggering a sell signal would have targeted 2091.00 and 2088.00. Avoiding that sell signal made extending higher Tuesday likelier. Extending higher would have required gapping up, which looks unlikely from a 10-14 point deficit currently. Trending back down is not the only alternative, but may be unavoidable if the open isn”t recovering 2088.00 and 2091.00.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2091.00 would be likely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2087.50 would be likely also not to recover the 2088.75 bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal.