The First Trade… That’s gonna leave a mark.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping down and trending down Thursday somewhat duplicated Wednesday morning”s pattern. But where Wednesday bounced into the afternoon, Thursday morning”s decline extended. And extended. And extended. A last-minute plunge essentially doubled the entire post-open drop that had preceded it. The cash session close fulfilled the 2035.00 objective that was targeted by a break under 2077.00, on the way down to 2025.50. And the gap down served by proxy to clearly define a bearish WedEX signal.

Overnight action”s new info…
Firming up to 2029.00 suddenly gave way to another plunge testing 2015.00, which soon extended down to test 2009.00 before midnight. Bouncing recovered to within 1 tick of 2029.00, but that reacted back down to 2018.00.

If, then…
If the open isn”t already recovering above the 2035.00 area, then the overnight recovery attempt will have likely failed. The consequence could fall far below the overnight low — not necessarily easy, but easier. This may seem counter-intuitive since the overnight low is much deeper. But the overnight drop has cleared a path that enables lower lows. And don”t underestimate how much stronger a trending effort can be when it bites down with expiration”s teeth. Meanwhile, this being expiration, trending through the opening 15 minutes tends to define the balance of the session. And this being a Friday, the morning”s bias tends to persist through the noon hour anyway.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2020.75 would be likely to trigger the 2023.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2027.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2016.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2019.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.