The First Trade… The go-ahead?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday morning was mechanical. Its sideways ranging held relevant support at 1977.00 through its relevant 10:15 time to create upside targets at 1998.00-1999.00. The afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release was as responsible for creating that mechanical morning, as it was for breaking it. Already rallying before the news triggered a spike up that eventually extended to within 3 points of last month’s 2011.75 high. Closing above 2000.00 kept alive potential fo rewarding the afternoon’s buyers for gaining traction, having exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s highs and entering the final hour even higher.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy sideways action has done nothing to contradict the upside traction, or to fulfill it prematurely. Probing fresh highs up to 2010.50 greeted Europe’s opens by plunging down to 1999.00. That has been recovered almost entirely to within 3 ticks. Each extreme is within a couple of ticks of this morning’s bias signals, suggesting that the ongoing pattern’s influence remains intact.

If, then…
Traction gained in the afternoon is usually rewarded the following morning by extending in that direction. Already extending much higher.that afternoon can moot the signal, but the late dip back down to 2000.00 neutralized that concern. Recently, trending sharply overnight has tended to fulfill that reward, but that’s not a factor currently.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2000.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1999.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2011.75 would be likely to trigger the 2011.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.