The First Trade… The next elephant in the room.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Fresh lows were probed through the noon hour down to 2051.25. The afternoon bias environment firmed back up to 2057.00, and then to 2060.00 into the cash session close. That was still in negative territory, and under the morning’s higher highs at 2061.00 and 2063.75.

Overnight action’s new info…
Surging through the futures close did probe the morning’s high by 1 point up to 2064.75. But the post-close surge was rejected the Globex open which gapped down and retraced the cash session close down to 2059.50. That rejection was limited, and recovered, soon probing even higher to 2065.50. Now higher highs are probing another point higher to 2066.50.

If, then…
Tuesday morning’s bounce already filled the gap back to Monday’s 2063.50 close. Since that resolved in a lower low, there’s no bearish reason to revisit that gap intraday. So, maintaining the overnight gains through the open — especially if begun by gapping up through 2066.00 — could trend up sharply this morning, before becoming paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Not maintaining the overnight recovery could resolve back down through yesterday’s lows and also probe under 2048.00.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2066.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2065.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2061.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.