The First Trade… The vulnerability of a promise.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday night”s slide exceeded its 2091.25 pullback limit considerably. Tuesday”s volatile open ranged choppily under that limit, and probed above it. Each timing window probed higher and higher, although each leg overlapped the morning”s test of 2096.00-2097.00. Buyers didn”t gain traction, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high. But neither of the next two timing windows extended higher — the final hour”s entry and 3:10-3:20 remained within the noon hour and bias environment ranges.

Overnight action”s new info…
Lacking traction didn”t prevent extending higher, first to test 2101.50 last night, and more recently to briefly touch 2105.75. That has reacted down to test 2101.50 as support.

If, then…
Overnight highs are probing back within Monday afternoon”s range, chipping away at its resistance and clearing the way for any post-open effort. If there is one. Gapping up is necessary to resume a rally that didn”t gain traction. So, this action is promising, keeping alive potential to new highs within 24-48 hours. Meanwhile, no prior traction also makes gapping up vulnerable. Not extending it post-open can produce a rubber band effect whose reversal down retests yesterday afternoon”s lows, which are 15-16 points lower.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2104.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2101.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2098.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2096.00 would be likely at least to attack Friday”s 2090.00 noon hour lows, and perhaps also this morning”s 2088.00 bias-down signal.