The First Trade… Thin air again.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Rallying aggressively ahead of FOMC proved overly optimistic when the policy statement was released. A 6-point surge to 2079.00 suddenly became a 23-point plunge to 2056.00. But that was recovered, entirely, and then some — by a 30-point rally to 2085.50. This satisfied the outstanding higher close put into play by last week’s confirmed breakout.

Overnight action’s new info…
An overnight drift attacking 2073.00 is probing back under each of yesterday’s highs. While price is consolidating optimistically, that range’s 2071.50 lows has yet to be touched.

If, then…
Can the reaction down from yesterday’s surge be isolated to the overnight action? Rallying from a gap down, and probing a new trend extreme could be bullish — if the recovery were maintained. Rejecting the intraday recovery could be bearish by forming a Pivot Reversal. And if that new trend extreme were to visit the rally’s next higher objective at 2088.00, then a significant top would form. Otherwise, gapping down could extend lower this morning, and still be only a temporary correction.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2074.00 would be likely to trigger the 2077.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2068.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2070.75 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2080.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.