The First Trade… This way, and that.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap down to 2057.50 tried extending. Twice, to 2051.50 and 2050.25, with an interim bounce to 2062.00. And that was just the first hour. A surge into positive territory didn’t extend, but its reaction down was supported by 2057.50. So were subsequent reactions down,interrupted by shallower and shallower probes above 2065.00. The close was testing 2062.00 as support.

Overnight action’s new info…
Overnight action has tried rallying, and declining, but neither is extending. First, a mirror image of Tuesday afternoon’s choppy ranging repeatedly attempted shallow probes above 2065.00. Its reactions back down were repeatedly supported by 2060.00. Until they weren’t. That’s when the last probe higher through Europe’s opens was reversed down 16 points from 2068.50 to 2052.25. A recovery attempt has tested 2062.00 as resistance.

If, then…
Yesterday’s productive selling was isolated to the morning, but the afternoon’s buying gained no traction. These elements create the potential for a recovery, which must be triggered by gapping up. The overnight dip doesn’t preclude a gap up — its reaction is now testing positive territory, and there is plenty of time to extend several more points before the open. But gapping down would be vulnerable to duplicating yesterday morning’s probe of fresh lows.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2058.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2056.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2054.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2069.50 would be likely to trigger the 2067.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.