The First Trade… Too much, too late.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Sunday night”s plunge had been retraced considerably before the open. Its reaction down held the 2050.50 bias-down target and recovered the 2058.25 bias-down signal, putting into play tests of both bias-up parameters. The 2066.00 bias-up signal was probed to within 2 points of the 2072.25 bias-up target. Reacting down into the noon hour extended back to within 1 tick of 2050.50 at the bias environment”s low. A reversal pattern there was recovered to 2061.25 into the close.

Overnight action”s new info…
The final hour”s rally extended to 2065.00 by the futures close, and then to 2072.75 through the Globex open. Dipping to 2067.00 was recovered and extended higher to 2078.00 — within 1 point of Thursday”s reaction to the Employment Situation report. Its 9-point reaction down to 2068.00 is now 2 points under yesterday morning”s high.

If, then…
Yesterday”s buyers didn”t gain traction for their effort. In fact, sellers nearly gained traction, exiting the bias environment under the noon hour”s low. But neither the final hour”s entry nor the 3:10-3:20 window extended down. The final hour”s rally expended buying pressure without gaining traction for the effort. Not reversing down this morning all but requires gapping up above yesterday”s high and extending aggressively with little delay. The 2072.25 unfinished business above might have enabled that, but its attraction is now neutralized. Reacting down from within 1 point of touching Thursday”s Employment report reaction might reflect some degree of pessimism, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. But that influence should be obvious soon after the open if it”s valid.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2070.25 would be likely to trigger the 2067.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2066.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.