The First Trade… Two rights make a wrong.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s open gapped down to 2017.50, but ranged choppily and widely between 2011.00-2015.00 through the morning. Ultimately breaking lower into the noon hour to 2004.00 did react up to 2015.00 until the bias environment lapsing came within view. But that only reacted down yet again to 1998.50. Even that was extended down further to 1996.25 post-close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open stopped 3 ticks short of touching Friday’s 1996.25 post-close low. That was reversed immediately, and relentlessly, testing 2017,50 and 2019.50 into and out of Europe’s opens. A quick 10-point drop was recovered back above Friday afternoon’s 2015.00 high, but only momentarily. Soon it, too, was resolving down as Crude Oil broke under Friday’s lows. Now fresh lows have been probed down to 1991.25.
If, then…
Was the initial overnight action a roadmap for the open, or a last gasp before a very weak session? The two paths higher had developed somewhat overnight. The first path would momentarily probe slightly lower lows before reacting up sharply from realizing no new selling sponsorship was being attracted. The second path up would gap up above Friday afternoon’s 2015.00 high. The overnight rally apparently had expended too much energy too soon to maintain that bullish positioning. By the same token, the overnight rally created a lot of room to absorb another round of selling. And the open’s dip was rather shallow, to begin with. The paths higher can still be followed, by repeating the overnight action. But not already rallying out of the open would isolate the recovery and leave the intraday vulnerable to extending down sharply.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1988.00 would be likely also to not recover the 1990.25 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 1998.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 1995.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2001.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.