The First Trade… Waiting for the out crowd to get in.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Ready, set, sell. Monday welcomed us back with an almost immediate resumption of Friday’s decline from its 1951.00 pre-open highs. Last week’s 1897.00-1899.00 lows were retested overnight. Sliding through late-afternoon attacked 1869.00. Sellers didn’t gain traction, but created potential at least down to 1864.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Lower lows ahead of Europe’s opens had already probed 3 points under 1864.00 and then back above it. Its reaction up extended at a steep slope to 1886.00. That’s yesterday’s noon hour high, literally the afternoon’s high… retraced, but not (yet) rejected.

If, then…
Despite potential for extending down to 1864.00 or lower, “hold-short” wasn’t contemplated. That was ruled out by yesterday afternoon’s sellers not gaining traction, so fulfilling the target overnight could still recover into the open. In fact, that has happened, but it doesn’t mean the trend is reversed up. Not without recovering some relevant level through the open, which will depend upon what relevant level is touched. For example, a post-open probe above yesterday’s 1886.00 noon hour high that isn’t extending at 9:45 would become likelier to launch an attack on overnight lows. Otherwise, extending higher this morning wouldn’t likely extend for much longer than that, which would be unusual following yesterday’s session-long downtrend.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1886.00 would be likely also to exceed the 1887.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 1883.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 1881.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1875.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.