The First Trade… Where was that hiding?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s plunge under its intraday range down to 1910.50 had been reversed to probe above Tuesday’s highs up to 1941.75. Wednesday’s intraday action was contained almost entirely within Tuesday’s range. But that didn’t prevent its swings from being wide, peaking at 1938.50 and then dropping to 1920.50. It was only the late-afternoon window when volatility began to subside.

Overnight action’s new info…
Similar to Tuesday night, but not — especially the sequence. Trending down 19 points probed under Wednesday afternoon’s low to 1917.00, to within 2 ticks of the bias-down target. It was recovered to probe above 5 ticks above Wednesday afternoon’s 1935.00 high. Just like Tuesday night, but in reverse… Oh, wait, then the market began a 28-point slide to fresh lows at 1907.50.

If, then…
Overnight action followed my prescription I had discussed yesterday — probing fresh lows didn’t have to extend, but was unlikely to extend, and likelier to recover into a rally. My treatment didn’t apply to reversing the recovery back down to probe even lower lows, substantially lower lows at that. Any bounce short of 19240.00 or 1927.25 would remain vulnerable to reversing back down. Bouncing back only to the range’s 1920.50 lower-end would more likely refuel a much deeper drop, even if that bounce were entirely pre-open.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1918.00 would be likely also to recover the 1916.50 bias-down target through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 1912.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal at 10:15.