The First Trade… Why was this night different from all other nights?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday night’s 33-35 point plunge had consolidated just under 1938.00, whose break would put into play 1918.00. Gapping down under it Tuesday didn’t extend down immediately, but eventually, finally testing 1918.00 as the afternoon’s bias environment began. The balance of the afternoon firmed to 1924.50, and then surged to 1935.00, to within 1 point of the open’s highs. The session’s close was flat with its gap down despite having trended down intraday.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially dipping to 1924.50 had bounced optimistically into China’s PMI, which disappointed. Its reaction plunged 20 points to 2010.50. So, why was this night different from all other nights? (Okay, wrong holiday.) Because rather than extend the plunge, Europe’s opens were greeted by a bounce back up to 1924.50. And a brief bobble there was resolved up through Tuesday’s highs to 1939.00. That’s being consolidated back down to 1932.00.

If, then…
It’s tough to label as “resilient” a market that is down sharply in a week to fresh two-week lows. But Tuesday’s gap down netted nothing for its effort, and now last night’s plunge has been reversed. Reversing a plunge does suggest that bearish fundamentals have become overly-discounted. Even with today’s exodus of many participants thinning volume, early strength could retrace much of Monday night’s plunge fast, too. Meanwhile, lower lows and lower highs still define a downtrend. And a lot of energy has been expended just to test 1938.00 resistance. So, the recovery attempt will be very sorry if not rallying at the open.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1941.25 would likely trigger the 1938.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1931.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.