The First Trade… You’ll never guess.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
All of Wednesday was spent in positive territory. But the pre-open and post-open probes above 2116.00-2118.00 resistance each were retraced. Firming into the close extended post-close to retest 2116.50.

Overnight action”s new info…
Another overnight drop, who knew… Wednesday”s post-close bounce to 2116.50 began falling gradually, and then more steeply, to eventually test 2110.00. A 4-point bounce met Europe”s opens at 2113.50. The meeting went poorly, triggering a plunge to 2099.75. That 3-hour old low has since ranged sideways back up to 2106.00.

If, then…
The overnight drop proves that Wednesday”s rally attempts weren”t compensating for the delay caused by Tuesday not maintaining its recovery. But the overnight drop hasn”t reversed the trend down. At least, not yet — 2099.75 may be the lowest a dip could qualify as still being recoverable. Any lower would return so close to recent lows as to require probing under them. And that would risk triggering the Ascending Triangle pattern that began forming at Memorial Day, targeting 2078.75-2081.25. The trigger for launching a downleg is nearer than signaling new highs in-play. Counter-intuitively, that can be bullish for today if the market isn”t yet ready to trend. But the overnight drop hasn”t altered the likelihood for rally legs to be steep.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2101.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2102.25 bias-down target by 10:15, and more likely to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2110.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2108.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.