The inverted session-long rally is
The inverted session-long rally is expected to follow the session-long decline”s template. Which Wednesday”s pattern did, until it didn”t. Each timing window was probing the prior timing window”s low, until the final hour. Instead, perhaps due to last-minute optimism ahead of the Employment situation report, Wednesday”s last timing window bounced. More so, it bounced back above the bias environment”s high.
That”s not a doubly-inverted setup. No such thing. But it also hasn”t necessarily abandoned the session-long decline template. A lot of effort goes into a session-long setup, and a lot more effort goes into inverting it. There is is still a proxy for reinstating the session-long decline.
Specifically, gapping open Thursday back under Wednesday afternoon”s low would fulfill the session-long decline template.
Why would that be relevant beyond validating the prior setup? Because the successful session-long setup tends to extend through the following morning. So, gapping down 11-12 points Thursday, under Wednesday afternoon”s ~2060 low, would be likely to trend lower through the morning. After three consecutive 15-20 point opening gaps, 11-12 points seems amateurish.
But, wait, there”s more… Wednesday”s final hour didn”t just avoid probing lower, but it also trended up. Having trended up into the close, gapping down under the prior afternoon”s low would form a session-long decline. So, extending down through the morning would be only the beginning.
Meanwhile, the 3-day holiday weekend indicator did not trigger. But its proxy could trigger a late bullish signal by gapping up Thursday 12-13 points to probe above Monday morning”s 2082.50 high. That would help to influence only a bullish afternoon, and not necessarily the morning.
Details were reviewed during the post-market Tour recorded here:
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