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The longest yard. – If, Then… Market Timing

The longest yard.

Rally back within proximity of being more than a corrective bounce.

I pointed out before the open that the overnight rally had held precisely at a 61.8% retracement of yesterday’s intraday decline. That natural resistance launched a reversal back down to the bounce’s origin. And through it.

Having probed under the bounce’s origin — i.e. yesterday afternoon’s low, if not also under the overnight low — recovering above their interim high would indicate more than a corrective bounce.

And the overnight high’s 1957.75 corrective bounce peak has been attacked to within 2-1/2 points at 1955.25.

That attack is during an invalidated no-bias environment, which broke above the 1944.75 through 1:30, after failing to trigger it at 1:20. Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above its 1949.75 bias-up target would earn the late buyers the same credibility given to Tuesday afternoon’s late buyers (who sponsored a 40-point rally).

But exiting the bias environment under 1949.75 would undermine buyers. And back under 1946.75 would start to signal momentum reversing down. Other support could prevent resuming yesterday’s decline, but the recovery would have become very suspect.