The opposite of up isn’t down.

But today, it might be.

I often point out that the opposite of “up” is not “down.” The opposite of up is “not up.” Price action can move up, or down, but also range sideways.

Today, that might be different. Not gapping up enough to reject yesterday”s down could instead confirm it.

Wednesday”s gap down sell-off wasn”t recovered before the close. That raised the bar on today”s open, if it intended to reject yesterday”s sell-off. Gapping up to Tuesday”s close was the most reliable path higher.

The gap up probed yesterday”s 2099.75 high temporarily. It was rejected, along with a later fresh high at 2102.75 that stopped 3 ticks short of touching the pre-open high. 

Fresh lows into the noon hour touched 2093.25, and this afternoon”s 2097.25 bias-down triggered. This is a bias-down environment, and its 2092.00 bias-down target is in-play. Extending down could even confirm yesterday”s break down, which would point down further into and out of the weekend.

So, is there any path up near-term? One, and it could take the form of  short-squeeze, but it has very limited time to trigger.  Since triggering at 1:20, this afternoon”s 2097.25 bias-down signal hasn”t produced a lower low. So, whatever was signaled at 1:20 would be invalidated by recovering it through 2:30 when the bias environment begins lapsing. 

The recovery attempt just touched 2098.75 (and then spiked up to 2100.00). That can still reverse back under 2097.25 by 2:30, which would confirm the bias-down. Rejecting it would preferably also recover the  2101.00 noon hour high by 2:30, no later than 3:00, to increase the potential for a short-squeeze.