The Universe, week of September 22 2014
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to ||Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
We need to start talking about the “January Effect.” It refers to downtrending stocks that suddenly rally after year-end, when tax loss selling pressure subsides. That is motivated by taxpayers wanting to utilize the paper loss in one stock they own, to offset the gain in another.
Sounds simple, right? It should be, but it”s a little more complicated than that. And I suspect it will be even more complicated in the marijuana sector.
It”s simple, in this way: Price is a function of supply (selling) and demand (buying). Price can fall because of falling demand, but also because supply is rising. When the supply is based on artificial reasons — for tax considerations instead of for investment quality — Price can suddenly stop falling and reverse up when selling slows, without any increase in demand.
Motivations behind supply and demand differ among people, seasons, times of day… The more varied the motivations, the more stable the market. Occasionally, many market participants are doing the same thing for the same reason. You”ve seen this effect most commonly as a reaction to a headline. But that”s over and done with in the blink of an eye.
The same principle is applied in slow motion when it comes to tax loss selling. It will only become more widespread as the deadline nears: December 31.
A separate blog post on Monday will continue this discussion, and describe the two extra complexities. The good news is that the January Effect may be very good for the marijuana sector — and possibly this year. The bad news is that it won”t apply to all marijuana stocks. The other bad news is that it won”t prevent the eventual winners from declining further first.
Enjoy!
| Marijuana Stock Technical Trader”s Universe for September 22, 2014 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 10 | 10.42% |
| trends* | # flat: | 23 | 23.96% |
| # down: | 63 | 65.63% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACAN | n/a | n/a | down |
| ACGX | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| ADCS | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| AEGY | n/a | n/a | flat |
| AERO | 3.800 | 5.900 | down |
| AGTK | 0.113 | 0.164 | down |
| ANAS | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| ANYI | 0.015 | 0.035 | flat |
| ARNA | 4.000 | 5.000 | up |
| ATTBF | 0.300 | 0.450 | down |
| AVTC | 1.640 | 2.500 | down |
| BIMI | 0.500 | 1.070 | down |
| BLOZF | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| BLPG | 0.350 | 0.760 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.162 | 0.217 | down |
| CALB | n/a | n/a | up |
| CANL | 0.960 | 1.500 | down |
| CANLF | 0.217 | 0.302 | down |
| CANN | 4.250 | 7.750 | flat |
| CANV | 2.100 | 3.550 | down |
| CARA | 8.630 | 10.910 | down |
| CBDS | 6.980 | 10.170 | flat |
| CBGI | 0.005 | 0.035 | down |
| CBIS | 0.055 | 0.072 | down |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.680 | 1.425 | down |
| CTCO | 0.235 | 0.640 | down |
| CYBK | 0.010 | 0.036 | flat |
| DEWM | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| DIGP | 0.605 | 1.100 | flat |
| DSCR | 0.002 | 0.003 | up |
| EAPH | 0.013 | 0.022 | up |
| EDXC | 0.031 | 0.077 | down |
| EGRVD | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| ENDO | 0.023 | 0.040 | down |
| ENRT | 0.048 | 0.100 | down |
| ERBB | 0.015 | 0.023 | up |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.059 | 0.085 | flat |
| FRTD | n/a | 0.008 | flat |
| FSPM | 0.350 | 0.800 | down |
| FULL | 5.900 | 7.120 | down |
| GBLX | 0.780 | 1.050 | down |
| GRCU | 0.009 | 0.016 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.088 | 0.135 | down |
| GWPH | 84.400 | 90.500 | flat |
| HEMP | 0.023 | 0.052 | down |
| ICBU | 0.013 | 0.035 | flat |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.017 | down |
| INSY | 29.800 | 35.250 | flat |
| ITNS | 0.009 | 0.015 | flat |
| LATF | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| LXRP | 0.052 | 0.180 | down |
| MCIG | 0.241 | 0.350 | down |
| MDBX | 8.220 | 12.030 | down |
| MDCN | 0.219 | 1.020 | down |
| MDRM | 0.045 | 0.099 | down |
| MINE | 0.005 | 0.013 | down |
| MJMD | 0.120 | 0.270 | down |
| MJMJ | n/a | n/a | down |
| MJNA | 0.125 | 0.184 | down |
| MJNE | n/a | n/a | down |
| MLCG | 0.005 | 0.022 | down |
| MNTR | 0.660 | 1.767 | down |
| MYEC | 0.014 | 0.026 | up |
| MYHI | 0.403 | 1.280 | up |
| NRTI | 0.033 | 0.077 | down |
| NTRR | 0.126 | 0.284 | down |
| NVLX | 0.180 | 0.255 | down |
| OGRMF | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| OSLH | 0.015 | 0.034 | flat |
| PAUFF | n/a | n/a | down |
| PHOT | 0.050 | 0.090 | flat |
| PLPL | 0.245 | 0.366 | flat |
| PMCM | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| PRPM | n/a | n/a | flat |
| PZOO | 0.035 | 0.053 | up |
| QEDN | 0.005 | 0.010 | down |
| REDG | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.260 | 0.448 | down |
| SING | 0.015 | 0.032 | flat |
| SKTO | n/a | 0.004 | flat |
| SPRWF | 0.270 | 0.370 | up |
| SRNA | 0.750 | 1.760 | down |
| STEV | 0.079 | 0.139 | down |
| TAUG | 0.014 | 0.022 | down |
| TRTC | 0.220 | 0.330 | down |
| TURV | 0.782 | 1.12 | down |
| TWMJF | 2.040 | 2.710 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.250 | 0.800 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| UTRM | 0.000 | 0.000 | down |
| VAPE | 1.140 | 1.730 | down |
| VAPR | 0.041 | 0.110 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VPCO | 1.370 | 2.490 | down |
| VPOR | 0.014 | 0.032 | down |
| VRCI | 0.009 | 0.025 | down |
| XTRM | 0.003 | 0.008 | down |
| ZDPYD | n/a | n/a | n/a |