Trading Plan for 10/1

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
The noon hour’s bounce was ultimately defined by hesitation to actually touch its 1140.00-1141.00 target. That pessimism undermined sponsorship of a dip to 1135.25. Its recovery sliced through the target to 1141.75, but positive territory pushed back. The close slid back to 1135.25.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
Thursday morning’s tests of the 1144.00/1150.25 bias-up parameters held up through 10:15 to avoid signaling no-bias, and through 10:30 to avoid invalidating the bias-up. The morning’s drop was a “bias-up downtrending” that required being retraced.

That requirement would be neutralized by exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the 1136.00 bias-down signal. It was being tested at 11:30, and at noon, but not clearly broken. And it was still being tested at the close, despite multiple probes below it intraday. Sellers could have rejected the attraction to retrace the bias-up downtrending. They did not.

That’s not a buy signal, but it does keep alive potential for another early rally, or to recover an early drop. The retracement’s objective would be the 1144.00 bias-up signal, or 1146.50 where the 10:15 bias timing window was exited. An overnight rally would qualify, even if already rejected before the open. Recovering 1144.00-1146.50 would be bullish.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
No low was broken Thursday to signal momentum reversing down. Rejecting the new high and holding a retest of Sunday night’s Globex extreme are not bullish, so the bigger picture remains vulnerable to rolling over. Timing is still relevant, and significant selling pressure Friday would confirm. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.