Trading Plan for 10/12

Freshman 10 Workshop Thursday… Whether new to the service, or seasoned, you are welcome to join me in the chartroom Thursday eventing at 6pm ET for an introductory workshop.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Tuesday was a relatively tight trading range by any measure, let alone for an entire session. Tests of  Monday’s 1192.50 high each reversed to test 1187.00. The actual range wasn’t much wider. This process repeated itself four times.

The session did not want to trend.

There was no unfinished business above — the morning’s 1192.50 objective had been neutralized — but no sell signal developed into a downleg. Two other buy signals produced 2-3 point moves, but also avoided developing into an upleg.

Tuesday’s 3:10-3:20 window trended down through relevant support (1190.75 and 1189.50), then printed a fresh afternoon low into the bottom of the hour. Often, this setup will extend down into the close. On Tuesday it only prevented another bounce from gaining traction.

Tuesday was the second consecutive session to close above 1182.25. Its close was still in the process of testing the first session’s 1190.75 close. That doesn’t conflict with 1182.25‘s recovery, but it doesn’t confirm it, either.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
A post-close gap down extended to fresh lows at 1185.00. Gapping down under 1182.25 would almost require extending down to Friday’s 1164.50 “lower prior highs.” Gapping down under Monday afternoon’s 1177.00 lows would make 1164.50‘s test likely to break lower. Otherwise, 1182.25‘s second consecutive recovery should extend the rally to 1222.00, whether or not first dipping down to 1164.50.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.