Trading Plan for 10/15

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
New lows printed when Thursday afternoon’s bias timing window started lapsing at 2:30. All of the session’s other pushes down originated too late for its sponsorship to be durable. And a late fresh low was testing an inflection point at 1163.00-1164.00 while RSIs improved. Recovering 1164.00 indicated the low was being rejected. The afternoon’s 1169.00 high was retested, then broken by a very last-minute surge.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
The very last-minute surge reached 1170.50 into the cash session close, then extended up to 1174.25 one minute later on GOOG earnings. That was not the high according to measurements of the afternoon’s ranging. In fact, higher highs after the futures close just touched 1176.50.

That’s a big recovery. It’s also late, so no more durable than the session’s earlier selling. More so, the late recovery is only the first leg emerging from the afternoon’s ranging. That makes it vulnerable either to dipping momentarily back into the range at 1165.50-1167.50 for a better bottom, or failing altogether.

Thursday’s sell-off invalidated Wednesday’s late breakout. Friday’s expiration session is vulnerable to a downdraft to test 1165.50-1167.50, but then likely to retest 1179.00 resistance. Gapping up above the 1179.00 area, or under 1165.50, would be likely to extend in that direction.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
Expiration’s influence has already delivered much volatility. A sideways day would not be surprising, with plenty of room to range between bias signals. Although the week’s earlier buyers have been shown not to be durable, sellers haven’t gained any traction for their efforts, so a downleg is unlikely to begin this week without first gapping down sharply Friday. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.