Trading Plan for 10/29

Another gap up rejected, at least through the morning. This area acts like the Bermuda Triangle, where rallies disappear and nothing seems to take their place. But this ranging is likely to try at least a head-fake soon.  [pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Thursday’s reaction to Jobless Claims spiked up to the morning’s 1187.50 bias-up signal. Thursday’s 10:15 bias timing window was exited under the 1182.50 bias-up signal. Rejecting both bias-up parameters puts into play tests of both bias-down parameters. The 1173.50 bias-down signal was tested at the session low.

Thursday’s 1166.50 bias-down target’s test remains outstanding, perhaps because the bias-up signal wasn’t tested during regular trading hours. Its rejection wasn’t as impressive. Regardless, Wednesday’s lows stopped just ticks short of touching last Thursday’s 1167.25 prior low. Its test is likely, and likely to include 1166.50.

Thursday’s cash session close equated to 1179.75. The closing bars easily overlapped Wednesday’s 1178.75 close, as did last Friday’s (all circled orange). The two interim session closed 1 tick either way of 1182.25 (circled purple). In fact, the last two weeks have gravitated noticeably back to the 1180.00-1182.00 area (highlighted yellow).

Perhaps with next week’s election and FOMC meeting looming – not to mention this weekend’s illiquidity – this market seems to have found comfortable ground. But that hasn’t stopped trending attempts.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
The two-week long reversion back to 1180.00-1182.00 already makes trending difficult to gain traction. This being a Friday only compounds the restraint. Intraday trending all but requires immediately breaking beyond the 1181.00-1174.00 range. Without an early break, the balance of the day would bounce around between 1171.00-1189.00.

Simulator update: I tested the simulator platform (DOM) Thursday to be displayed in the chartroom. It is taking up too much space, so I am testing different resolutions that keep the chart legible. I had hoped to take this live in the chartroom Thursday afternoon, and will keep you updated here – I’ll still need feedback from everyone concerning its display.

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Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.