Trading Plan for 11/1

If Friday’s open isn’t making a decent rally effort… then the next decent rally effort might not develop until testing much deeper levels.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Wednesday afternoon identified a relevant price at 1756.00-1757.00. Trading above or below it at relevant times would be predictive. It was recovered through Wednesday’s close, suggesting that the sponsorship who produced that relevant price was losing traction.

1756.00-1757.00 supported a gap down Thursday. It didn’t prevent fresh lows Thursday morning down to 1750.25, but that reacted back up above 1756.00-1757.00 to fresh session highs at 1764.00.

1756.00-1757.00 ultimately broke lower again. Its break was maintained through the close. Its break was underway before getting to within 3 minutes of the cash session close. And its break was underway already coming out of the position-squaring window.

Its break was not underway before entering the final hour, or at least through the 3:10-3:20 timing window. Either of those timing windows would have been optimal, for a break under 1756.00-1757.00 to signal it was sponsored by strong hands. This later break still gets a benefit of the doubt, at least for probing lower overnight. But the break’s later timing makes any overnight dip more vulnerable to being retraced in time for Friday’s open to have recovered into positive territory.

That would be bullish. And being a Friday, that could gravitate higher or rally outright through the noon  hour.  Just recovering 1760.00 through the open could marginalize sellers for the day, and a retest of Wednesday’s 1772.25 pre-open highs would be likely. But now that older “lower prior highs” at 1753.00 has been visited (Wednesday), revisited (Thursday morning), and re-revisited (Thursday’s close), exiting Friday’s open any lower would signal a bigger decline underway.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
There is no Market Tour Friday. I will be in the Chartroom and updating the Blog during the morning, before the 10:15 bias timing window is triggered, and through the bias environment. I’ll be back again for the last couple of hours. Thank you![/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.