Trading Plan for 11/14
If this rally intends to peak anytime soon… then it had better peak Thursday, because ending the week with fresh highs could require that the rally extend even higher.
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
A new trend high close on Friday would all but require there to be another, since trend high closes just don’t happen on Fridays. Same can be said for a new high close on option expiration, since expirations simply don’t have a history of coinciding with a trend high.
So, a bullish Wed Expiration indicator would confirm the rally remains alive and well, right? Maybe. Wednesday’s breakout above all prior highs didn’t happen until after the bias environment had lapsed. That’s not exactly the strongest hands. In fact, it’s the basest of signals for a setup that looks back two entire sessions. So, rejecting Wednesday’s late breakout — e.g. gapping down Thursday under the bis environment’s 1770.25-1772.75 prior high and low — would qualify as a passively bearish WedEX. In any case, WedEX influences Friday afternoon and Monday morning.
Gapping or trending down wouldn’t necessarily extend down for long Thursday. Wednesday’s buyers did gain traction for their efforts, having closed above the noon hour and bias environment’s highs. But that only makes a new high likely intraday, not necessarily maintained through the close. Having fulfilled potential to 1777.75 and 1779.50 (already extending higher post-close to 1782.00), not already topping by noon Thursday could extend to 1785.00 or even 1794.00.
There is otherwise no unfinished business above, and some very interesting indications to be revealed before Thursday’s close.
[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Jobless Claims being reported before Thursday’s open is the week’s only influential report. The afternoon’s 30-year auction can influence price action, too — probably not pessimistically in advance, since Wednesday’s 10-year went off well.[/pay]
Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.