Trading Plan for 11/16

1203.00-1204.00’s test at Monday’s open and noon hour both pushed back. One test should have sufficed to resume Friday’s decline. Either sellers won’t produce much more of a decline, or a much bigger decline is getting underway.[pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Friday’s drop wasn’t rejected. Not Sunday night, and not intraday Monday. There was plenty of opportunity, and at least two attempts, but buyers failed to gain traction. Sellers failed to gain traction, too. But Monday’s gap up put the burden of proof on buyers.

The session ranged exclusively in positive territory, and the morning’s high was later probed. The session’s optimism was ineffectual. A lot of buying pressure was expended without gaining traction, making the pattern likely to resolve down.

Overnight bouncing has room up to 1200.00-1201.00 before buyers would start gaining traction. But there is no requirement to bounce at all. In fact, Monday’s closing setup was acceptable to hold short, its next open being vulnerable to gapping down.

The trend remains down so long as 1200.00-1201.00 is not recovered. And so long as it is not recovered, Tuesday’s open will very likely gap down at or under 1193.00, next targeting 1189.00 and 1180.00-1182.00.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Monday night’s Globex open did gap down, and already extended lower to within 1 tick of 1193.00. Its break through a relevant timing window would put into play 1180.00-1182.00, with some interim support at 1189.00. Opening above 1200.00-1201.00 would leave unfinished business below, but the potential to 1217.00would be reinstated.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.