Trading Plan for 11/19

SummarizeDayAndPositions [pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Everything is relative. For example, Thursday afternoon’s bias environment dropped throughout, and expended a lot of selling pressure. But the drop developed over five hours, and it fell only 3-1/2 points. Its sellers weren’t very productive.

A 2-point surge when the bias environment lapsed was pretty big compared to the 3-1/2 point drop. Everything is relative. But the surge stopped short of gaining traction above 1198.00 that would have broken to fresh session highs.

A 4-1/2 point dive to 1193.50 took 30 minutes. That’s pretty big in any context, but this move’s relative size was not as important as its timing. The late drop could only refuel buyers after hours of ranging narrowly. In fact, the entire drop was retraced back up to 1198.25.

Everything is relative. The late drop was recovered after cash session’s close. Price did explode sharply higher only one moment later – but it was later. That buying was not a product accumulation, but a reaction to DELL’s earning and position jockeying ahead of Friday’s expiration.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Despite expending so much energy overnight and at Thursday’s open, buyers did not gain traction for their efforts. This being a Friday, signaling no-bias at 10:15 would make trending very unlikely. It also makes a bias signal likely to trend through the noon hour.

The pattern is still capable of probing fresh highs – maintaining a gap up to fresh highs above 1199.00 should extend higher through Friday morning. But there is otherwise no unfinished business above, and any failed overnight rally or opening weakness under 1195.00 would target 1186.50 and then 1180.00-1182.00[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.