Trading Plan for 11/19

If one trend change warning only pauses the rally… then must the next warning have a different resolution? Only if the setups are similarly formed. But Tuesday and last Monday”s setups are different. Last Monday”s last three timing windows ranged narrowly sideways, while Tuesday”s tried to trend.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Tuesday”s buyers gained no traction for their efforts. The bias environment”s exit was above the noon hour”s high, but the final hour”s entry was flat. Surging from the open and trending higher through the entire day, without gaining traction. This means that buyers were fully satisfied, and that no new sponsorship was attracted. 

Meanwhile, three consecutive timing windows developed above all prior highs. This setup warns of a trend change. The warning might be left at that, especially if Wednesday were to extend higher. It probably won”t impose a week-long narrow range like last Monday”s similar warning. So, not extending higher Wednesday could be very bearish.

Tuesday”s rally was a breakout, the first to close above what had become a relatively narrow trading range. Closing higher Wednesday would confirm. Closing higher would also not be in-line with expectations for only a momentary failed breakout attempt.

What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
There is no unfinished business above — Tuesday”s 2054.25 bias-up target was met within 1 tick, where 3 ticks would have sufficed, and RSIs were not overbought at the high. Extending higher anyway would suggest the rally is unstoppable. Not just a retracing the last timing window”s 6-point drop back to 2048.00, and not just probing the high”s Double Top at 2054.00 — but recovering fresh highs through a relevant timing window, to invalidate Tuesday”s trend change warning.