Trading Plan for 11/22

It’s the question on everyone’s mind… Did Monday’s market bottom, or not? And if not, will it hold a retest? And if it were to hold a retest, how deeply would it be probed first? Finally, isn’t that three questions, not one?

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Monday’s sell-off neutralized all unfinished business below. It was easy, since there was no unfinished business below. There wasn’t going to be a bottom without first probing a fresh low at 1205.00. But there was no pattern actually targeting it.

Delaying 1205.00‘s test made 1190.00‘s test likely, too. It was probed by nearly 10 points down to 1180.50, then recovered up to 1196.75. Ultimately, 1190.00 held as support through the close. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts.

Buyers gained no traction for their efforts either. A short-squeeze had become possible by exiting afternoon bias environment above the prior timing window’s high, targeting. The squeeze-like behavior only tested the pattern’s initial 1196.00 target. A close above it or its 1200.50 target would have signaled momentum reversing up. But the close was under each.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
There was an opportunity to bottom. There is still an opportunity to bottom. Monday was not a bottom. Retesting Monday’s low could form a bottom, which would be dangerous since Monday’s low might not hold. Gapping up enough might launch a bounce, but it would leave a gap outstanding below. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.