Trading Plan for 11/23

Wednesday’s session has a normal closing time… but afternoon participation will probably rival weekend volume levels as many participants leave early for the holiday weekend. That environment is no time to be forcing a trade.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Monday’s drop tested and held 1190.00 as support. Its own afternoon had potential to begin a recovery, but did not. Repeated overnight probes of fresh highs could have gained traction, but did not. And the same applies to Tuesday afternoon’s recovery from probing under Monday’s low. No traction.

Not that sellers had any stronger sponsorship. They didn’t accomplish much more than did Monday’s sellers. Tuesday’s fresh low was all of 5 ticks lower, and the bounce never probed above Monday’s high before peaking. A post-close 6-point slide to 1180.00 came to late to reflect strong hands.

In those respects, the pattern is no weaker now than it was at Monday’s close. Except that not yet rallying suggests the market may be intent upon visiting something under this week’s lows. And that would be dangerous if not quickly recovered back above 1182.50 to avoid gaining traction in the compact time remaining. Otherwise, gapping up Wednesday or immediately recovering the 1205.00 area would be credible for extending higher into Friday.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
The holiday shortened week moves some econ reports into Wednesday, which tends to confuse the market. The effect can be only temporary, or it can trigger a pattern that has been forming. Normal reactions are not likely. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.