Trading Plan for 11/25

If testing support is a way to refuel buyers… then buyers must be pretty refueled after Monday”s repeated test of support. Right? Actually, no. And in this pattern, possibly the opposite. Scroll down for more.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
A sell signal finally triggered Monday. It was at the final hour”s entry under 2065.50. Not only was it the first sell signal to extend deeper than its first three minutes — it was the first sell signal to be pierced even momentarily.

And it was rejected.

2065.50 had been a pivotal level all day. Its relevance was not as an inflection point triggering follow-through. It was more predictive and contextual. Recovering its intraday tests through relevant timing windows had kept the burden of proof on sellers.

Earlier tests had trapped shorts and created unfinished business above at 2071.50. That last probe under 2065.50 wasn”t just noise, and the natural question to ask is whether repeatedly trapping shorts deserves a higher target than 2071.50.

The answer is no. At some point, repeatedly trapping shorts is as much an indictment of buying pressure needing so much refueling before finally extending higher. But the action does confirm 2065.50 to be a relevant level, which we”ll want to keep in mind if/when it is attacked after fulfilling 2071.50 and retesting Friday”s high.

What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Speaking of which, Monday”s closing action trended up, but didn”t probe a fresh afternoon high until after coming within 3 minutes of the cash session close. The action wasn”t bearish — despite 1-minute RSI diverging negatively — but it wasn”t optimal for justifying a hold-long. The market often reconciles those two factors by probing higher overnight and then rejecting the higher probe through the open. So, probing higher without being rejected would be bullish.