Trading Plan for 11/26

That was quite the send-off into the Thanksgiving holiday. The open’s gap up extended higher to retest prior highs. Either the rubber band has been stretched back again to launch another drop, or else a bigger bounce is underway.[pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Wednesday afternoon’s meandering was entirely appropriate its volume evaporating quickly. The morning’s 1195.50 high was probed above and below, but essentially defined the range’s midpoint. Bars overlapped it into the final minutes.

There is no unfinished business above, so extending the rally would suggest new sponsorship had arrived. And new sponsorship would essentially put into play new highs around 1228.00. Resistance along the way would include 1208.50/1212.00 and 1217.00.

Otherwise, Wednesday’s session was counter-trend refueling. It was similar to all but one of the four prior sessions whose highs held as resistance. Buyers expended all of the day’s energy without gaining new traction for their effort. If the next 30 points’ direction should be obvious by Friday’s open, and if the next 30 points’ direction is not up, then the holiday is vulnerable to a Thanksgiving slide.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
“Thankstaking”? That’s the risk on any sustained break under 1194.00. If the next 30 points is heading higher instead, then 1199.00 will need to break higher. Holiday probes of its resistance won’t matter if not maintained into the next cash session. Friday’s abbreviated hours might simply range narrowly, regardless of the template that suggests greater volatility. Regardless, I’ll certainly comment ahead of Thursday morning’s Globex close, and publish Friday’s bias parameters afterward. HAVE A VERY HAPPY AND SAFE THANKSGIVING![/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.