Trading Plan for 11/27

Please have a safe and happy Thanksgiving!

[pay]Pattern notes.
The absence of pre-opening weakness made the market likelier to retest prior highs. And that’s essentially how the session transpired – likelier to retest prior highs. The likelihood alone was enough for two tries to come close. The 1111.25 pre-open high came close to retesting the 1112.00 prior high. And the cash session’s two tests of 1110.00 stopped short of touching the pre-open high.

Both the morning and afternoon bias parameters were still being tested at their timing windows. The 1107.00 bias-up signal at 10:15, and the 1106.50 bias-down signal at 1:20. Each invoked a grace period, which neither exploited.

The unusually heavy econ calendar triggered pre-open volatility, but not intraday. The unusual news of the Dollar’s steep drop pushed S&Ps higher only grudgingly. The day before a holiday is similar to Fridays, being difficult to attract sponsorship for trending. Nonetheless, Wednesday’s session did trade exclusively in positive territory and above the prior day’s highs.

As goes pre-Thanksgiving, often so goes post-Thanksgiving. I wouldn’t expect any fireworks Friday without some sort of news. Wednesday’s ho-hum reaction to the Dollar suggests that even news won’t light the fuse.

Indicators and Internals.
The morning’s no-bias environment triggered while holding a test of the bias-up signal. Its test was ongoing at 10:30, helping the session to avoid testing the 1099.00 bias-down signal. But this is an objective whose test remains outstanding.

Friday’s opportunities.
Wednesday’s close has deposited price at the doorstep of probing prior highs. Assuming that sellers remain marginalized, Friday’s session should continue firming to finally probe prior highs above 1112.00, perhaps up to 1115.00. Assuming that new sponsorship doesn’t materialize, the probe of prior highs should be rejected. The shortened session probably won’t allow a rejection to be very obvious. Opening weakness has room down to 1105.00-1107.00 without letting sellers gain traction. (I’ll update on Thanksgiving as price action merits it.)

News: We’ll be testing an upgraded version of the chartroom’s conference software, sometime during the week of Dec 14-18 (probably that Tuesday). This will resolve any incompatibility issues caused by Windows 7 and Apple Mac.

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