Trading Plan for 11/4

If sellers had more time than just one or two days… then could they have broken under “lower prior highs”? It’s starting to look like they want to see prior highs retested, first.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Chipping away at 1752.75 and 1750.00 support has its rewards. First, it might have consequences for not yet breaking lower. The 1750.00-1752.75 area’s relevance has been described here previously (also, view Friday and Thursday’s Market Wrap recordings for more explanation).

Testing, retesting, re-retesting… There has been enough of that there to have passed the point of borderline overkill. A break lower has become at least obligatory. Friday afternoon’s buyers failed to exploit that the session’s redundant tests of 1752.75 had held again. Buyers normally would have little problem leveraging the weekend’s impending illiquidity to exploit sellers’ hesitation at critical support.

But there is that hesitation. So, if sellers aren’t resuming and extending the decline immediately Monday morning, then we should expect buyers to be more opportunistic about the decline’s repeated reprieve. We should also then expect an aggressive rally that retests last Wednesday’s 1772.25 pre-open highs / “new Globex trend extreme” up to 1774.50.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
As there is no Saturday Strategy Session, we did a bigger picture overview during Friday’s Market Wrap. Its recording is linked here… Next week’s schedule will miss two Market Tours, on Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, all of Wednesday will be missed. There will be some other brief absences I’ll be able to list on those days. But I will definitely be involved in Friday’s Employment Situation report. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.