Trading Plan for 11/4

Big news, big swings and big closes… Even with the two most anticipated news items playing out predictably, the market is providing plenty of intraday trending attempts and turning points. This is the hallmark of wide disparity among opinions, and of fertile ground for trading opportunities.[pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Resistance at 1195.00-1196.00 was influential Wednesday, despite being tested only once intraday. It pushed price down when tested overnight, and it attracted price up into the close. Its attraction was neutralized.

The 1196.50 “new Globex trend extreme” was retested after the cash session close, but before the Globex open. This mitigates the requirement to retest it intraday. But its retest remains likely so long as Thursday’s open doesn’t reject the recovery by gapping down under 1190.00.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
A pullback has room down to 1192.00 without buyers losing traction for extending the rally to the 1200.00 area. Extending higher without first dipping would stretch buyers thinly ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Gapping down under 1190.00 would put the market back on defense ahead of the news. But trending Thursday afternoon is no more likely to gain traction than it was before Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.