Trading Plan for 1/15

[pay]At the close (How the prior session ended)
New highs into Thursday’s last hour helped to marginalize sellers. There wasn’t much follow-through, peaking immediately upon probing Monday’s 1146.75 intraday high. Price dipped through the 3:10-3:20 window, robbing buyers of their traction. It was too late for sellers to gain traction, so the last hour only ranged sideways back down to 1144.25.

1144.25 had been the last productive pullback limit – “productive,” meaning that a pullback touched it, then recovered to a higher high. There is no reason to revisit a productive pullback limit unless the rally’s momentum has ended. The 3:10-3:20 action already indicated as much.

Perhaps the rally’s momentum was inhibited by anxiousness ahead of INTC’s earnings. Indeed, S&Ps gapped up back to Thursday’s high when trading resumed after the news.  One hour later, price has yet to extend higher.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
Thursday’s opening and closing highs each probed Monday’s 1146.75 intraday high. The prior high held as resistance through the close. Buyers gained now new traction, but neither did sellers. Sellers can regain traction by spiking or gapping down under 1138.25. Almost any lesser weakness would still be likely to recover and continue probing prior highs.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
Three-day holiday weekends tend to inhibit volatility. The impending illiquidity inhibits sponsorship that might otherwise be willing to risk the exposure. And this being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal tends to persist well past the noon hour. Limited selling at the open would limit the potential for sellers to regain control. Sunday night’s 1148.00 Globex extreme is likely to be probed in this scenario, but actual trending cannot be assured.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.