Trading Plan for 11/6

If not for the afternoon political speeches… then the new high targets could have been met intraday Wednesday. The overnight rally wanted it. The noon hour”s recovery wanted it. The afternoon even attempted to rally while two high-profile speeches were being televised. Stopping short of probing fresh highs only managed to keep alive pessimism.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
And pessimism can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. So, repeatedly stopping short of new highs is increasingly bullish, right?

Maybe. Now highs would keep the burden of proof on sellers. But the ongoing ranging has formed “congestion” which has become an attraction, too. 

In other words, buyers are earning at least a temporary, obligatory fresh high for having prevented downlegs from extending. Meanwhile, the ongoing teasing and delay is making the fresh high all the likelier to be only obligatory. Temporary.

First things, first. Another downdraft would likely be recovered, again. A probe of fresh highs would not be assured of extending.

What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Quite a busy day ahead for the econ calendar. Then comes Friday Employment Situation report. And the market is hovering at its highs, with two days of illiquidity ahead. Keep the trend in mind, keep counter-trend positions small and brief, and be aware of when the trend changes (and when it has not).