Trading Plan for 1/2

If Tuesday’s session had been abbreviated… then would the close still have recovered to the morning’s high, let alone above it? I tend to think so, that the market does what it intends to do, adjusting its own timing as needed. The early rally would have been earlier, along with its reaction and recovery. Perhaps the bigger question is whether the regular-length session should have been more productive.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Closing above 1836.00 put into play 1856.50, with potential for extending to 1869.00. Closing at 1836.00 for three consecutive sessions made the breakout likely to reach its target much more aggressively — compensating for delaying its start.

That’s if the breakout is valid. It still must be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Thursday. Not above the post-close 1846.50 high — just above its 1842.75 cash session close. But that cash session close is problematic since it was not above the morning’s high, meaning that buyers gained no traction for the effort, regardless of the post-close extension.

Extending higher is not at all assured, and extending down already into Thursday’s open would be entirely credible for rejecting Tuesday’s breakout. Extending down already at Thursday’s open might be the only credible rejection of Tuesday’s breakout. So, NOT already extending down at Thursday’s open may be its own confirmation of Tuesday’s breakout.

Whichever way Thursday goes, the new year is likely to start with either an upside bang, or with a downside dud.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Please have a safe and Happy New Year’s! Globex reopens Thursday morning at 6:00am ET.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.