Trading Plan for 12/15

NDX has already filled Nov 30’s opening gap… S&Ps are 61.8% of the way back to Nov 29’s close. Meanwhile, the Dow has barely probed under Nov 30’s open. To the degree that there is any optimism, it is narrowly focused on the “bluer chips.” Wait until that focus is lost, too.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Monday’s renewed trend change signal was confirmed Tuesday, and extended lower Wednesday. A big enough bounce maintained through Thursday’s close could still trigger its own reversal up. Meanwhile, any bounce is expected to resolve down in new lows.

Wednesday’s Expiration Indicator probed new lows and closed under prior sessions’ lows. This suggests that big hands are posturing bearishly for trending down into and out of expiration weekend. Like the trend reversal signal, a bounce is possible, but likely to fail.

The moves next objective is to probe under 1200.00, touching 1197.75. No pattern has put it into play otherwise. Testing it and recovering from it could launch a corrective bounce into Friday morning. Closing under it would trigger much lower targets. A probe under 1200.00 is likely, probably before a bounce, and its test would present a major near-term decision for trending.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Not extending down early enough Thursday under 1204.00 could bounce instead up to 1216.50, or even up to 1227.25 and 1230.50. Gapping up above 1214.00-1216.00 would also threaten to invalidate the bearish Wednesday Expiration Indicator. The trend is otherwise down.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.